Predictions for 2002:
1. Attendance at Disneyland and Disney’s
California Adventure (DCA) will be much stronger than everyone thinks
— at least according to turnstile counts.
Analysts unanimously have proclaimed that dipping attendance at Disney
parks won’t turn the corner until at least 2003. My guess is that attendance
at both Anaheim parks instead will increase this year — thanks to
anticipated discounting to the local market and, especially, the skyrocketing
sales of inexpensive two-park annual passes.
Now, while that should keep the ticket takers busy at the Main Gate, that doesn’t mean the ticket sellers will be collecting more money at the ticket booths. I suspect that admission revenue from single-and multiple-day admissions will, in fact, decrease.
2. To increase revenue, Disneyland and
particularly DCA will host more separate-ticket events.
In recent years, Disneyland had kept its gates open later in the evening,
even during low season, intent on keeping guests—and their wallets—in
the park longer. Hours were finally trimmed this past fall, and again
this winter.
The parks will continue this trend, not only to reduce operating expenses, but also to free up the facilities for more after-hours parties. More private parties for companies and groups, Grad Nites and merchandise events will allow the parks to sell some tickets after entertaining annual passholders all day.
3. Disneyland will continue to be ignored as long as, in desperation, Disney continues to lavish attention on struggling DCA.
Consider it theme park triage; since Disneyland’s condition has stabilized, management can frantically administer C.P.R. to DCA.
It doesn’t matter that Disneyland brings in triple the guests as DCA (and, I assume, triple the revenue). Most new attraction development money will be poured into DCA until the new park can stand on its own.
4. DCA will lose its first attraction
in 2002.
Yes, I know DCA changes its stage and sidewalk entertainment about as often as new mothers change diapers (and for the same reason). The park has also made big changes at several restaurants. But all the attractions of a year ago are still running. My take is that while Disney quickly realized that several attractions would have to be replaced, the park had so few attractions that they couldn’t afford to temporarily lose one, even bad attractions like Superstar Limo, under-visited attractions like MuppetVision, or attractions that aren’t even attractions like the tortilla tour.
When Flik’s Fantasy Faire opens, count on DCA to finally make the move and shutter its first attraction to make room for a replacement or at least a major overhaul.
5. Disney will intensify work on its
third gate in Anaheim, while refusing to commit to solid concepts.
Tough times at the theme parks and the companywide will prevent Disney from breaking ground any time soon. Still, DCA’s lackluster first year has made it obvious that it will take more than a snazzy shopping mall and modest second gate to turn Anaheim into a global resort destination. So, expect Imagineers to continue dreaming up possible concepts for another Anaheim theme park as well as complementarily themed hotels, a water park and other entertainment.
Disney also will keep meeting requisite permit deadlines for its as-yet-undeveloped
property and keep shopping for additional parcels of land in the area
— which might become available as neighboring landowners realize
it could take years before the millions of new tourists begin to arrive.
Now, before you take the above predictions
to Vegas, please heed the following warning. My predictions
a year ago didn’t all pan out. Let’s revisit—and grade—last
year’s forecast.
Predictions for 2001:
1. Although it won’t break any new
ground, DCA will be a smash success, right out of the gate, simply
because tourists can now make Anaheim now a multi-day destination and
because locals are starved for a new theme park. Attendance should stay
high through the year—long enough for visitors to catch on that there’s
not all that much to do at DCA and for Disney to get busy on additions
to keep business strong.
[Grade: D] Guests, in seems, were a lot more discriminating than
I gave them credit for. It didn’t take 12 months for them to catch on,
it took about 12 days—the park preview days last January. Poor word
of mouth, a less marketable product, and a slowly deepening recession
forced Disney to spend the year concocting deeper and deeper discounts,
more desperate promotions, and quick-fix additions.
All of this combined to doom my next prognostication…
2. Disney will quickly hike the price
of admissions, most severely gouging annual passholders.
[Grade: F-, making it possibly the worst Disney-related prediction
since Disneyland forecast its new “streetacular,” Light Magic,
would run for at least three years.] In my defense, Disney had just raised
single-day admissions from $41 to $43 and was poised to boost them again
to $45. Then, last Christmas season, Disneyland was so crowded that many
days it had to turn away $43-a-pop customers (while letting annual passholders
in).
Admission rate increases seemed the perfect solution, both decreasing congestion in the park and increasing revenue, all the while taking advantage of the initial novelty of a second gate. But then something awful happened. DCA opened… and nobody came. Consequently, Disney would sell a record number of discounted admissions and, fearing a drop in the number of two-park pass renewals, drastically slashed the price of annual passes.
3. Resort parking will be horrendous.
[Grade: B-] The numbers just didn’t seem to add up. Total resort
capacity: more than 100,000 guests. Total resort parking places: about
20,000. Somebody’s turning around and going home.
Well, last January, as preview crowds packed DCA and Downtown Disney, this prediction seemed golden, as “Lot Full” signs quickly went up around Disney’s parking facilities. But capacity crowds would prove rare thereafter.
4. Disneyland and DCA operations
would suffer from severe staffing shortages.
[Grade: B+] Initially, the cast member shortage was because Disney
couldn’t find enough qualified candidates willing to work demanding hours
for demeaning pay. As the year went on, departments would run short-staffed
to save money.
5. Despite Disneyland beginning to
plaster dumbed-down warning signs on every wall, post and vehicle,
guest stupidity will continue to flourish.
[Grade: A] Visitors to Disneyland have always “checked their
brains at the gate.” Making the resort bigger, thereby increasing
the “talent pool” that visits (and works for) Disney, shouldn’t
help the problem.
Witness the teenager who filed suit last week blaming the park for breaking his ankle a few months before on the Alice in Wonderland ride — even though after the accident he publicly admitted he purposely dragged his leg outside the vehicle.
Better yet, during a visit to Disneyland on Christmas Eve, I overheard the following comments within an hour of each other…
Teenager to his mom: “Hey, where’s the Haunted Castle?”
Young lady, pointing at Tomorrowland’s rooftop “sculpture,” the Observitron: “Wow! Can we ride that next?”
And, finally, the enthusiastic cast member spieling on our tram from the parking structure: “For your enjoyment, Disney’s California Adventure will be closing at 7:00 tonight…”
Impressive, you’re probably smirking. Well, now it’s your turn. Please send me your Disney predictions for the New Year atthis link..
